Newsletter | April 2023
STRESS IN THE BANKING SECTOR PUSHED YIELD CURVES MUCH LOWER
4.35% THE EXPECTED END-YEAR LEVEL OF THE FED FUND RATE
Investment perspective
The month of March was most eventful for capital markets. Three US banks collapsed following a run on their deposits and the Swiss government forced through the takeover of the 167 year-old bank, Crédit Suisse, by its rival UBS. This banking turmoil triggered a fall of equity markets and a plunge of bond yields. Markets also quickly repriced their expectations relative to the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle, with rate cuts being anticipated for the second-half of 2023, once again. US federal authorities intervened quickly to protect both insured and uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to restore calm in the markets. The merger of CS and UBS also contributed to remove some market stress even if Deutsche Bank found itself under heavy selling pressure for a brief period. The second half of March saw global equity markets rebound strongly and end the month with modest positive returns. The best performing asset in March was gold which benefited significantly from lower real bond yields and a weaker US dollar to appreciate by 7.8%.
A high level of volatility has been observed in bond markets for some time now, as a result of the fast pace of monetary tightening since early 2022. The moves that took place in March, however, proved to be even more extreme. The yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasuries collapsed from early-March levels of 5.06% and 4.08% to closing lows of 3.77% and 3.38%, respectively, a most significant shift of the US yield curve. By the end of March, expectations for the end-year level of the Fed’s fund rate had also dived to 4.35%, compared to an early-March level of 5.55%. In the Eurozone bond markets, comparable trends as in the US were observed, even if to a lesser degree; markets are now pricing in a end-year ECB policy rate of 3.4%, in contrast to 4% at the beginning of March.
Investment strategy
Our defensive portfolio asset allocation was maintained through March. We were close to being able to increase our fixed income allocation as bond yields kept on rising, but their sudden drop has prevented us from making this move so far. We had also got very near to our first target on the EUR/USD parity, with the objective of decreasing our dollar exposure. Then again, the unexpected banking turmoil trig-gered a reversal of the prevailing trend, taking away the opportunity to sell the US currency. We admit being some-what puzzled by the ongoing confidence of equity markets in view of the signals sent out by the bond markets. Were the Fed to cut rates this year, as currently priced in by markets, it would be due to a deeper slowdown of the economy, not the best framework for equities. That is one of the reasons why we have kept our underweight allocation towards equities.
The past month was a mixed bag for alternative strategies, but we continue to view them as an integral part of the port-folios. This is also the case for gold which has continued to provide real diversification and to behave more like a long duration asset, bringing defensive qualities to portfolios.
THE OPTIMISM OF EQUITY MARKETS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO WHAT IS EXPRESSED BY BOND MARKETS
Portfolio Activity/ News
March was a modestly negative month for the portfolios as equity, fixed income and alternative asset classes all posted negative returns. US and European value funds were the largest detractors in the equity allocation, whereas the global technology fund produced a strong contribution as growth stocks outperformed. Our underweight duration exposure and our preference for credit strategies meant that most bond funds ended with limited monthly changes, except for the emerging market corporate debt fund which experienced a larger drawdown. The brutal reversal of bond markets also proved costly for trend-following strategies, in reason of their very short positioning on rates. In contrast, the discretionary global macro strategy performed very well. For non-USD denominated portfolios, the depreciation of the dollar also translated into a negative contribution for the portfolios.
In March two new funds were added to the model portfolios. The first one is a US value fund which replaced our previous US value one. The reasons for this change were an under-whelming performance of the prior fund recently, as well as an overweight exposure to the energy sector within the new fund. We also trimmed our discretionary Global Macro and trend-following CTA strategies to make room for a systematic Global Macro strategy based on fundamental and price-based indicators. The fund combines carry, fundamental, trend-following and value/reversion strategies, and displays a remarkable track-record over an extended number of years.
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Newsletter | March 2023
MARKETS WERE IMPACTED BY A REPRICING OF POLICY RATES IN FEBRUARY
4% THE EXPECTED PEAK LEVEL OF THE ECB’S KEY RATE
Investment perspective
The early-year optimism in financial markets gave way to renewed concerns over inflation and even tighter monetary policies, triggering a significant drop of bond markets. As often observed in 2022, the volatility in bond markets rose noticeably and impacted the momentum of other asset classes. The yields of 10-year Treasuries ended the month 41bps higher at 3.92% with those of Bunds with a similar maturity climbing by 37bps to 2.65%. While European equity markets proved to be resilient, as the Euro Stoxx 50 Index edged 1.8% higher, emerging market and US ones gave back a large portion of their January gains; the MSCI EM Index fell by 6.5% and the S&P 500 Index lost 2.6%. In this context, the US dollar benefited from the widening of the interest rate differential between Treasuries and Bunds, and from its safe haven status, to record a solid performance against other major currencies. A strong dollar and higher real interest rates meant that gold saw its early-year gains being erased, while other commodity prices also dropped.
Early-year market confidence over the decline of inflation appears to have been replaced by concerns that it will be more sticky and remain higher for longer than previously anticipated. This change of outlook was triggered by the publication of inflation data which was above forecasts, on both sides of the Atlantic, and was reflected by the steep rise of inflation expectations. The correction of bond markets in February means that they are more closely aligned now with the outlooks of the Federal Reserve and the ECB, with an implicit admission that policy rates will end up at much higher peak levels than previously expected. Markets are now pricing in peak policy rates of 5.5% in the US and 4% in the Eurozone, compared to January 2023 lows for peak rates of 4.7% and 3.05% respectively.
Investment strategy
We maintained our defensive asset allocation in February. Thanks to an underweight allocation towards equities and a low duration of the fixed income exposure, the drawdown of portfolios was not too deep. In last month’s newsletter, we had reiterated our scepticism about the markets’ optimistic outlook over a pivot by the Fed in the second half of 2023 and were therefore not surprised by the retreat of equity markets in view of rising bond yields. We believe that equity risk premiums are not attractive at this stage, leading us to remain cautious, especially in view of concerns over profit margins and the path of earnings.
We are closely observing the level of European bond yields as we are approaching a point where we would likely increase the duration of the portfolios. The latest developments in bond markets also mean that the recent appreciation of the US dollar has stalled. As we did not reach our first target on the EUR/USD parity, we have not yet reduced our dollar exposure for non-USD denominated portfolios.
INVESTORS HAVE BACKTRACKED FROM THEIR OPTIMISTIC STANCE OVER TERMINAL RATES
Portfolio Activity/ News
February was a negative month for the portfolios as both the equity and fixed income asset classes were detractors, while hedge funds produced only a marginal positive contribution. For non-USD denominated portfolios, the appreciation of the dollar provided a welcome positive contribution. Some of January’s best performing funds fared the worst during the month under review; the metal mining fund and Chinese equities were the largest equity detractors, whereas emerging market corporate bonds and the long duration investment-grade fund were the biggest fixed income ones. European Value and cyclical equities provided the best contributions within the equity asset class and the short duration European high yield fund generated the only positive fixed income contribution.
In February two new funds were approved by our investment committee. The first one runs a systematic Global Macro strategy based on fundamental and price-based indicators. The fund combines carry, fundamental, trend-following and value/reversion strategies, and displays a remarkable track-record over an extended number of years. The second fund is a concentrated US Value fund, which seeks to invest into great businesses trading at a “bargain”. Since its inception in 2008, the strategy has outperformed both its Value bench-mark and the broader S&P 500 Index.
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Newsletter | February 2023
MARKETS MAKE A STRONG START TO THE NEW YEAR
+ 10.7% THE JANUARY RISE OF THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX
Investment perspective
Financial markets got off to a very positive start in 2023 as investors took the view that the likelihood of a soft landing was rising despite the hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In this risk-on environment, the vast majority of equity markets posted above-average monthly gains, long-term bond yields decreased, credit spreads tightened, and the US dollar continued to depreciate. The MSCI World index in local currencies climbed by 6.4%, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index rising by 9.7% and the Hang Seng index by 10.4%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped by 36bps to 3.51%, with US and European high yield credit spreads contracting by 49bps and 68bps respectively. Other strong gains were also observed on industrial metals, as a result of the anticipation of renewed demand from China, and on the price of gold. Maybe a little surprisingly, oil prices ended the month lower, despite the boost from the reopening of China, while gas prices continued to slide at a fast pace.
At the time of writing, the Federal Reserve has just hiked its Fed fund rate by 0.25%, as fully anticipated. The more relevant outcome of the FOMC meeting were the comments by the Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, on the future path of the Fed’s policy. Powell repeated that more rate increases were needed and that rate cuts in the second half of the year were unlikely. This goes against markets’ expectations for two rate cuts by the end of 2023. What was more surprising was that Powell did not push back more against the recent easing of financial conditions, leading markets to extend their early-year rally, with equities ending the trading session higher and bond yields declining. The ECB and the Bank of England also matched market expectations by hiking interest rates by 0.5%. The ECB signaled its intention to raise interest rates by another 0.5% in March and will then evaluate its policy depending on data. As was the case after the Fed’s decision, markets are continuing to rally, with bond yields dropping quite noticeably.
Investment strategy
At the onset of 2023, our asset allocation is composed of an underweight equity exposure, an allocation to fixed income which is close to neutral and an overweight exposure to hedge funds. Taking account of the strong performance of equities in January, we are sticking to this asset mix for the time being. We fear that markets could be overconfident in their dovish outlook relative to monetary policies and to the path of earnings. With bonds offering positive yields once again, we believe that it makes sense to hold more balanced portfolios and no longer to rely just on the equity asset class to generate portfolio performance. It is also reassuring that the current valuations of some of the traditional assets offer a better starting point for future portfolio returns than a year ago, when only a few of them could be considered cheap. Global value stocks, emerging and European equities, as well as investment grade credit are some of the assets that offer attractive valuations.
For non-USD denominated portfolios, our allocation to the US dollar remains underweight but we prefer to wait before reducing it further. From a medium to long-term perspective we would expect the dollar to depreciate but it continues to offer defensive qualities were markets to turn.
MARKETS INCREASINGLY POSITIONING FOR A SOFT LANDING SCENARIO
Portfolio Activity/ News
January was a strong month for the portfolios. With both bond and equity markets rising simultaneously, the majority of funds contributed to the performance, as to be expected. European Value equities, the metal mining fund, the global technology fund, Chinese equities, and the US Value fund provided the best contributions within the equity asset class. The only equity detractor was the healthcare fund, as the more defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples and utilities ended the month lower. The best performers in the fixed income asset class were emerging market corporate bonds and the long duration investment-grade fund. In the alternative space, the Global Macro fund provided the best contribution, whereas one of the long/short equity funds, with a barely positive net exposure currently, ended the month with a small loss. The other hedge funds provided only marginal contributions.
Following a tough year for many strategies, we are confident that active managers will be able to generate more alpha in 2023. We would expect market dispersion to be high and to represent a favourable environment for good stock pickers. This extensive dispersion should also be helpful for hedge fund managers, and we are comfortable with our overweight exposure to these alternative strategies.
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