Newsletter | October 2019

THE GLOBAL STOCK OF NEGATIVE-YIELDING DEBT REACHES $17 TRILLION

10% THE OVERNIGHT REPO LENDING RATE SPIKES

Investment perspective

Risky assets fared well during September as trade tensions eased somewhat. The MSCI World, in local currencies, appreciated by 2.2%, with Japanese and European equities outperforming, whereas government bonds pared back some of their strong year-to-date gains. Gold was also in consolidation mode as a result of higher yields and of a firmer U.S. dollar. The past month wasmarked by a major attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure which triggereda spike of oil prices; this proved to be only temporary however as the release of strategic reserves and a faster-than-expected recovery of production then pushed prices below their end-August levels. Politics continued to be a key driver for markets; the formation of a new coalition government in Italy and a series of defeats for Boris Johnson’s U.K. government, deemed as reducing the chances of a no-deal Brexit, were taken positively by investors.

The September meetings of the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve were highly awaited by the markets. The ECB decided to cut rates by 0.1% to – 0.5%, to restart QE (€20 billion per month) and to introduce “tiering”for banks in order to limit the impact of negative rates on their profitability. The ECB will also offer banks new TLTROs (targeted long-term financing) with favourable terms. On its side, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% to a range of 1.75%to 2% but said that it didn’t expect further rate cuts this year. Members of theFederal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were much divided on the bank’snext move, with seven members wanting at least one more reduction in 2019.

The global stock of negative-yielding debt surpassed $17 trillion at the onset of September. According to Bloomberg, thirty percent of all investment-grade securities are trading with sub-zero yields, including corporate bonds. With global economic growth slowing and central banks back in easing mode, this stock of negative-yielding debt could well keep on expanding.

Investment strategy

Since the beginning of the year, the consensus of the market anticipated an improvement of the global economy in the second half of the year. This optimistic scenario has been in- creasingly put into doubt as macroeconomic data has failed to show signs of a rebound. We have been quite surprised that markets have brushed these concerns aside so easily and placed so much faith in the ability of central banks to offer sufficient additional support to extend the economic cycle. Indications that the so-far resilient consumer sector is also starting to show some weakness would likely only amplify the current growth concerns. The upcoming reporting of third- quarter corporate earnings is likely to focus on the impact of the economic environment on capital investment and on the outlook for future earnings. These factors largely explain why we are sticking to a more cautious portfolio positioning as we look to protect strong year-to-date gains.

As we had expected, bond yields rebounded from their year- lows as investors took some profits and the bond rally had clearly been overbought. However a big rise of bond yields is not our main scenario, in a context of softening economic activity and of easier monetary policies.

ECONOMIC WEAKNESS LIKELY TO WEIGH MORE ON MARKETS

Portfolio Activity/ News

The portfolios ended September higher thanks to the positive performances of equity positions. The rebound of bond yields meant that the overall contribution of the fixed-income asset class was close to neutral. The past month’s best contributionwas provided by our U.S. value fund which benefited from the rotation out of momentum and growth stocks into deep value ones. It is still too early to know whether this shift will prove just to be a temporary trend or a more sustainable one, but what is certain is that value stocks are trading at a record discount compared to growth stocks. Our allocation into Japanese equity funds was another strong contributor in view of the monthly outperformance of Japanese equities. The much discussed trend-following strategy was the biggest detractor in the portfolios as it suffered from the impact of rising bond yields, but still stands around + 20% YTD.

We added a defensive global equity fund to the portfolios in September. The fund has a value approach and its current defensive positioning is reflected by a significant exposure to cash and to gold. At a time when certain market factors appear to be running out of steam, the fund could benefit from renewed demand for value stocks and from a normalisation of bond yields.

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