September 2018 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

August was a mixed month for global equity markets as the MSCI World Local Currency Index’s 1.1% gain was only the result of higher U.S. equity prices; in contrast, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index lost 3.8%, the Topix 1% and the MSCI EM Index 2.9%, in dollar terms, due to concerns about the ongoing trade dispute and the stress in emerging markets. This higher aversion to risk was also reflected by the significant strength of the Swiss franc, which appreciated by 2.9% against the euro, and by lower yields on U.S. Treasuries and Bunds. Emerging market bonds were badly impacted by EM currency weakness, with the J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Spread Index widening by 46bps to 400bps.

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August 2018 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

July was a strong month for global equity markets as the MSCI World Local Currency Index gained 3.1%, with positive performances recorded across most regions. Concerns about the trade war took a back seat as investors focused on the supportive reporting of second quarter earnings, especially in the U.S. This higher appetite for risk assets was also reflected by the rise of sovereign debt yields, with that of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moving back close to 3%, and gold continuing to drift lower.

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Perspectivas de inversión, Julio de 2018

En esta publicación semestral repasaremos las expectativasEn esta publicación semestral repasaremos las expectativasde enero y analizaremos algunos de los principalesindicadores económicos actuales antes de definir laasignación de activos que recomendamos para el segundo semestre.

Nuestro posicionamiento a comienzos del año ha sido cauto

Nuestro posicionamiento de las carteras a principios de 2018ha sido un tanto cauto, con un nivel de liquidez superior a lamedia y una exposición moderadamente sobreponderada ala clase activos de renta variable. Sostuvimos que 2018 seríaun año más complicado para la renta variable, y esto es loque ha sucedido en gran medida. Nuestra previsión de quelos rendimientos de los bonos aumentarían paulatinamentese ha visto justificada en el caso de los títulos del Tesoro deEE. UU., pero no en el de los principales bonos europeos.

Nos abstuvimos de destinar efectivo a la renta variabledurante la espectacular recuperación experimentada enenero, puesto que consideramos que se había producidouna sobrecompra en los mercados y los inversores habíanadoptado una actitud demasiado optimista. Mientrasque los activos tradicionales se esfuerzan por producirrendimientos positivos en la actual situación inestable de losmercados, el papel de las estrategias alternativas ha cobradomayor importancia, como fuente de una rentabilidad nocorrelacionada y para reforzar la resistencia de las carteras.

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June 2018 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

May was eventful as an early-month rally of equity markets was derailed by a flare-up of political and geopolitical risks, with Italy being in the eye of the storm. Safe haven assets, including U.S. Treasuries, Bunds, the Swiss franc and the yen, rallied whereas the ongoing appreciation of the dollar accelerated. Emerging markets’ assets remained under pressure due to a mix of rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar as well as idiosyncratic issues in countries such as Turkey and Argentina. Global financial markets were also impacted by geopolitical headlines related to the tensions over trade between the United States and China, the U.S. pull-out from the Iran nuclear deal and the holding or not of the U.S./North Korea summit.

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May 2018 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

A number of trend reversals were observed during April as European equities outperformed and as the dollar started to rebound; G-7 sovereign debt also returned to its early-year trend of rising yields, with U.S. Treasuries recording the steepest moves. When looking at year-to-date returns of regional equity indices, European equities have more than made up their underperformance relative to U.S. and emerging markets. Part of this catch-up can be explained by the rebound of the dollar, which appreciated by 2% against the euro during April. Japanese equities also performed well during the month as the Topix Index gained 3.6%, helped by the 2.8% depreciation of the yen vs. the dollar.

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April 2018 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

March was another tumultuous month for equity markets, which have moved from an early-year state of euphoria to a state of confusion. With a lack of news related to the profitability of companies, stocks have been hurt by concerns about a trade war, reshuffles within the White House and a series of negative developments relative to the technology sector. Maybe surprisingly, defensive assets have not benefited that much from the volatility of stock markets; gold was virtually unchanged, government bond yields have drifted only a little lower while the Swiss franc and the yen, the perennial safe haven currencies, barely varied over the month.

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March 2018 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

Financial markets were shaken out of their comfort zone in early February as global equity markets were severely impacted by a sudden spike of volatility and by fast-rising bond yields. Even if these factors were the main reasons for the turbulence of the markets, it is fair to affirm that equity markets were ripe for a correction as they had become extremely overbought and had been boosted by massive inflows during January.

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February 2018 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

Global equity markets got off to a spectacular start in 2018 as investors poured into equity funds at a record pace. In contrast, government bond markets have remained under pressure with yield curves gradually shifting higher and also steepening. The end-2017 weakness of the U.S. dollar against most currencies accelerated throughout January, reflected by a monthly drop of 3.3% for the dollar index.

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Perspectivas de inversión, Enero de 2018

2017 ha sido un buen año para la economía global, y excepcional para los mercados de renta variable

La economía global experimentó su mayor tasa de crecimiento desde 2011. El aspecto más destacado ha sido el hecho de que el crecimiento fue generalizado y las expectativas se modificaron al alza durante el año. Las tensiones geopolíticas, que en ocasiones presentaron una amenaza, no amortiguaron los elevados niveles de confianza empresarial y de los consumidores y su impacto en los mercados de capitales fue transitorio. Las preocupaciones acerca de los acontecimientos políticos europeos no se materializaron, ya que los partidos políticos populistas no llegaron a generar un vuelco en varias elecciones generales. Asimismo, el espectacular ascenso al poder de Emmanuel Macron en Francia se consideró un importante estímulo para la estabilidad futura de la Unión Europea. 

Los mercados de renta variable se comportaron de manera inusualmente tranquila durante 2017, con una rentabilidad empresarial sólida y generalizada y amplia liquidez que apuntalaron los precios más elevados de la renta variable; la volatilidad se situó de modo sistemático a niveles próximos a los mínimos históricos y no se observaron perturbaciones significativas. Podría decirse que los mercados de bonos fueron algo más tempestuosos, aunque permanecieron en márgenes relativamente estrechos. Sorprendentemente, el euro resultó ser la más sólida de las principales divisas, impulsado por un escenario político mucho más estable de lo previsto en Europa.     

 

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December 2017 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

November turned out to be quite eventful, especially when compared to the relatively quiet previous months. The performances of equity markets across the world were far from being homogeneous; US equities hit new records, emerging markets ended flat and European equities lost ground, due to the impact of an appreciating euro. Short-lived stress was observed in both the US and European high-yield bond markets whereas Chinese assets were affected by authorities’ efforts to limit levels of debt. Finally, the high-flying technology sector was impacted by a late-month sell-off. Profit-taking and a switch into sectors seen benefiting the most from the potential reduction in the US corporate tax rate were behind this correction of tech stocks.

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November 2017 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

October was another strong month for global equity markets as the MSCI World Index gained 2.5% in local currencies. The ongoing rally was primarily sustained by positive economic data, robust third quarter corporate earnings and a dovish European Central Bank. Rising expectations for US tax cuts and a general election victory by Japan PM Abe also contributed to the supportive environment for risk assets. The US dollar extended its September rebound and appreciated versus all the other major currencies. Bond yields edged lower in the Eurozone while the yield on 10-year Treasuries ended the month only four basis points higher than at the end of September.

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October 2017 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

The trends observed during September were not necessarily those anticipated by many seasoned market investors and commentators. A rise of volatility and a correction of equity markets had often been put forward but the end result was a good performance of equity markets and volatility close to record lows. Bond yields trended higher while the US dollar finally managed to regain some composure as it rebounded against most currencies. Within the equity asset class, European equities clearly outperformed, for the first time since April. Emerging market equities were impacted by some profit-taking and the recovery of the dollar. The dollar was also a headwind for gold as were the rising real interest rates.

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September 2017 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

Global equities managed to end August virtually unchanged even though it was quite a volatile month for financial markets. Sovereign debt performed well as key central bankers refrained from discussing any changes to their monetary policies whereas gold benefited from safe haven demand and lower real interest rates. The euro reached new year-highs against other major currencies and peaked close to a parity of 1.21 versus the dollar before retreating somewhat. Finally, oil prices dropped as severe flooding in Texas restricted  refining capacity, resulting in lower demand for crude oil.

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August 2017 || Newsletter

Investment Perspective

The euro was the star performer during a month of July which also saw global equity markets record additional gains. Developed sovereign debt markets regained their composure following the late-June/early-July correction while the US dollar continued to depreciate against most of its peers. The equities of emerging markets outperformed once again as they recorded a 4.4% gain in local currency terms. In contrast, the appreciation of the euro prevented equities of the Eurozone from making any significant gains.

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Perspectivas de inversión, julio 2017

En esta publicación semestral repasaremos las expectativas de enero y analizaremos algunos de los principales indicadores económicos actuales antes de definir la asignación de activos que recomendamos para el segundo semestre.
Incrementamos nuestra asignación de renta variable a principios del año
A consecuencia de nuestras perspectivas positivas, tanto macroeconómicas como de renta variable, para 2017, hemos posicionado las carteras de forma dinámica mediante el incremento de la asignación hacia la clase de activos de renta variable. También habíamos expresado nuestra confianza en que los precios de la renta variable deberían estar apoyados por una aceleración del crecimiento global de los beneficios y, hasta la fecha, esto es lo que ha sucedido.
Habíamos reafirmado nuestra firme convicción acerca de los mercados emergentes y nuestra exposición global a la renta variable a comienzos del año estaba bien diversificada entre las diferentes regiones. Desde entonces hemos aumentado la asignación hacia la bolsa europea y también de los mercados emergentes. Los fondos alternativos fueron motivo de preocupación tras la decepcionante rentabilidad registrada en 2016, aunque los diferentes fondos a los que estamos expuestos han mostrado un comportamiento mucho mejor en lo que va de año y han contribuido a la sólida rentabilidad de las carteras.

 

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